Whenever
I read political pundits and the emergency policy analysts, asking APC to reel
off figures supporting the cost analysis of how it will create jobs, feed
primary school students, fund social security, among others, I always nod my
head in amusement. Those that are overstretching this advocacy as an argument
to discredit the preparedness of APC need help. They need education. And they
have it here -free of charge.
I
hope we have explained the difference, in context and in practicality, between
manifesto and developmental blueprint. Even after Charles Soludo reminded APC
that its manifesto does not boil down to details, citing Chief Obafemi Awolowo's
example of statistics-supported electioneering promises framework, what APC
could offer, as a response, was purely conceptual explanation of the 'How to',
still devoid of figures. If you think APC can do better than that, you are
either ignorant of the technicalities of data-driven policy modelling, and its
mismatch with the present state of Nigeria's data-bereft governance, or just
pandering to political sentiment.
In
2014, I met Azri, a Malaysian, in British Council, Penang, Malaysia. He came to
write IELTS. During our exchanges, he told me that he would be going out of the
country to study Pharmacy because his country's Ministry of Education has
barred the enrollment of this course locally because the personnel and
infrastructure available, cannot take more students for that particular course,
for the next specific number of years. He also told me that he would have loved
to go for Medicine, but he was told that if he hopes to work in Malaysia, the
country is need of more Pharmacists than Doctors in the next certain number of
years. He told me that no Malaysia high school leaver can boast of the specific
course s/he will be going for in the universities; s/he can only have range of
choices. This is because it is the responsibility of the respective Ministries
to allot students to each course, in full consideration of the nations'
preferential needs, market demand, available infrastructure, and all other considerable
variables. That is a country of data-driven policy modelling.
Let
us come back home: In Nigeria, unless you have a mole in government, or if FOI
is now performing magic, you cannot be sure of the precise income-expenditure
ratio of the country. The government circuitry, in obedience to the Aso
verdict, is a closed system, painted with openness. This is the dilemma and
insurmountable challenge for an incoming government to make propositions that
are data-based. Even our census, our capital market statistics, nationals and
residents demographic details, labour market and entrants data, natality and
mortality stats are nearly non-existent, and at times politically cooked up.
This is scenario of a country that her governance is data-bereft. Hence, the
inability of APC to be statistically-detailed is not and must never be seen as
a sign of laxity. It is the constraint that the system presents, and must be
one of the APC's tasks when they get to power.
On
the last note, those that voted for our supposedly most-educated President, in
the history of Nigeria, did so out of pity of his 'shoelessness'. Unfortunately,
this has metamorphosed into 'cluelessness'. He only promised 'fresh air', and
elicited his wish-list. Nobody asked for his fresh-air supporting statistics!
What has changed? Even when he becomes an insider, he could not provide a
period-based developmental blueprint, except the ever-massaging opportunistic
Vision 2020. He could not show a responsible achievement with the oil boom
period, but now he tells us there must be austerity measure, because there is
oil price dwindle. And at that, his kitchen allowance and cost of governance
remain bullish. Who spends more when his income is lower? Nobody does that
except our one and only Port Harcourt Diploma (PhD) holder.
