IS TRULY BOKO HARAM MORE OF PDP?

My recent resolution to give Nigeria a more 'seeing' than 'talking' is simply borne out of the fact that many hands are playing in and out of the social advocacy and activism expected to be seen as agitation against the status qou; the contraption called NIGERIA!

Though this is not cowardice, but an approach practically to be more strategic. One of my recent observations and convictions is that some machineries are blowing up sentiment against Muhammad Buhari, and employing the Media framing theories against him basically to make him unsaleable, and in the long run continue to deprive Nigeria and Nigerians those set of leaders that are sincere enough and patriotic to fix this long-existing socio-economical and political illness.

For those who have been linking Buhari and El-Rufai to Boko Haram, or alleging them of complicity shld please read this underneath and refute the claims and logical conclusion or remain silent till eternity. These facts preceded the Dog and Baboon allegory!!

Ayo Arannilewa furnished me wth these facts: Alhaji Adamu Ciroma a PDP stalwart said Nigeria 'ill be made ungovernable if the Northerners 're denied the presidency in 2011,

In Dec.2010 Alhaji Atiku Abukakar a presidential aspirant of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), warned the Jonathan Government over the 2011 poll, saying “those who make peaceful change impossible, make violent change inevitable”. In October 1, 2010, there was a bomb blast during the year’s independence anniversary celebrations, with attendant deaths of many Nigerians. MEND (the militant group from Dr Goodluck Jonathan’s ethnic extraction) claimed responsibility but without waiting for any preliminary report from the Security Agencies, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, as President, told a traumatized Nation, “it is not MEND!”

In January 2012, Dr Goodluck Jonathan told a bewildered nation, still smarting from murderous bombings, that his government has been infiltrated by Boko Haram.

In February 2012, a serving PDP senator from Borno South (Mohammed Ali Ndume) was arrested for being a member of Boko Haram.

In March 2012, Ndume deposed to an affidavit before a Federal High Court wherein he stated that Vice-President Namadi Sambo was aware of his activities with Boko Haram.

In April 2012, General Andrew Owoeye Azazi , the National Security Adviser, averred that there was indisputable proof that the activities of PDP gave birth to Boko Haram. As things stand, President Goodluck Jonathan is the national leader of PDP.

In April 2012, Henry Okah (while standing trial on Terrorism charges) deposed to an affidavit before a South African court that President Goodluck Jonathan was the sponsor of the October 1, 2010 bombing at Eagle square. It is on record that as governor of a Niger-Delta state, Dr Goodluck Jonathan (together with his brother governors) had used the MEND to command the attention of the Nigerian state.

WHO PAYS THE GHANAIAN PROF. GEORGE AYITTEY -NAIJA PUNDIT

WHO PAYS THE GHANAIAN PROF. GEORGE AYITTEY -NAIJA PUNDIT

Before yesterday the name Prof. George Ayittey did not ring a bell in West Africa, he was probably only known in his country Ghana, and maybe in some parts of Ethiopia where he has been a regular presenter of papers. He is an economist, not exactly a sophisticated brand like the Okonjo-Iwealas or Soludos, he has managed to sustain his job at The American University in Washington DC as a professor of Economics.

Just a few days ago, he launched his trade into the Nigerian political sphere; lashing out at President Goodluck Jonathan is a manner which he will not dare to council chairman in Ghana. As a right thinking Nigerian, I felt badly insulted, that a Ghanaian will be so bold to disparage the president of Nigeria in such a scathing way. As I write, I am not entirely happy with President Goodluck Jonathan, especially with his surrender to the Boko Haram politicians of Northern Nigeria, and consequential sacking of General Andrew Azazi. However, I felt deeply miffed by the statements of the Ghanaian professor whose online statements appeared suspicious to me.

His use of language was so entirely familiar and the flow seemed too much like a script written by either Mallam Nasir Elrufai or Dr. Aliyu Tilde, both die hard revilers of the president. I immediately sought to know who exactly this ‘renowned economist’ really was. My curiosity was further stirred when I observed speed with which the Ghanaian professor had learnt the constitution of Nigeria in just a few hours, and he was quoting sections of the Nigerian constitution. He also, in his interview kept referring to President Jonathan as ‘GEJ’. GEJ is not the name foreigners call Jonathan; he constantly lashed the president as ‘clueless’ a tag operatives like Mallam Elrufai want on Jonathan’s neck.

According to his faculty profile available online, Prof. Ayittey holds a B.Sc. in Economics from the University of Ghana, Legon, an M.A. from the University of Western Ontario in Canada, and a Ph.D. from the University of Manitoba. He has taught at Wayne State College and Bloomsburg University of Pennsylvania.

He held a National Fellowship at the Hoover Institution in 1988-89, and then joined The Heritage Foundation as a Bradley Resident Scholar. He founded The Free Africa Foundation in 1993, to serve as a catalyst for reform in Africa

Almost immediately he got the Heritage Foundation as a resident scholar, Babangida was honoured by the Heritage Foundation, a US right wing front whose philosophy is total world domination, economically, politically and militarily.

Nana Apau, a Ghanaian journalist, in his article titled - Ghana oil: seeking national or some personal selfish interests?- described Prof. George Ayittey as a major and well known African lobbyist in Washington DC. Prof. Ayittey was member of the African Oil Policy Initiative Group (AOPIG). It is the AOPIG that formed the US-Africa Energy Association, members of which included a number of serving and former Bush administration and several oil companies such as BP, Chevron, Texaco, Marathon, Shell and Anadarko. AOPIG and the US-Africa Energy Association lobbied the Bush Administration for the creation of AFRICOM. Nana accused Prof. Ayittey of lobbying for oil companies – inn particular Prof. Ayittey was accused of pushing Anadarko, a company that has become a player in the Ghana oil find.

Clearly, the president was right when he said “criticizing Goodluck Jonathan has become a big business in Nigeria”. Who paid this lobbyist to disparage the president?

Washington lobbyists like Prof. George Ayittey work hard for their money, but the nature of their work is to use their position and influence to push the interest their paymasters. This is exactly what Prof. George Ayittey has done – to amplify the mutterings of General Ibrahim Babangida his paymaster and friend. Ayittey’s sponsors belong to the same circle with the sponsors of Boko Haram, and their objective is to adequately embarrass the president internationally, so much so that the United States and our Western allies will see the Jonathan as a weak president. The end game however is the next elections in 2015. The sponsors of Ayittey are fraudulently building up a strong case against the president and his party.

SourceWatch, an international magazine exposed Prof. Ayittey as one the major West African lobbyist in Washington. See:http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=African_Oil_Policy_Initiative_Group Prof. Ayittey has consistently used his status as an African frontline economist to push the interests of his clients.

The Centre for Media and Democracy (CMD) publishes SourceWatch, this collaborative, specialized encyclopaedia of the people, organizations, and issues shaping the public agenda. SourceWatch profiles the activities of front groups, PR spinners, industry-friendly experts, industry-funded organizations, and think tanks trying to manipulate public opinion on behalf of corporations or government. SourceWatch also highlights key public policies they are trying to affect and provide ways to get involved.

With his strong conservative leaning, being an associate of the Heritage Foundation, a fundamentally Republican think tank with long standing IBB affiliations, Prof. Ayittey’s comment on Goodluck Jonathan must not be taken lightly by this administration. It is an indicator that if US Republican candidate Mitt Romney wins in the coming US elections, right-wing lobbyists like Ayittey will drop rapid punches for their paymasters. This government must seek to counter this now, or else risk irreparable embarrassment in Washington DC.

*************************************************************
With all sense of my personal objectivity even as a hard liner critic of GEJ and his moribund style of administration, I found the utterances of this Ghanaian Professor insulting on my country, NOT on JONA. How dare can he encroach into our national issues where he holds no citizenship in such a rude and unethical manner?
Crying must not be affecting the vision of the so-called Nigeria activists, especially the social-media enabled generational critics who shamelessly support this ruthless manner of a supposedly University faculty member. Any moral support for this man called Ayittey is a symptom of bad followership. The recklessness of the Govt does not rationalize such interference on our national being, two wrongs CANNOT make a right.
If any one should insult JOLANTERN, he must be a Nigerian! Chikena

NIGERIAN RULING CLASS AND ITS EXHAUSTED POSSIBILITIES - Musa Bashir

NIGERIAN RULING CLASS AND ITS EXHAUSTED POSSIBILITIES

by Musa Bashir 

Musa Bashir

One of the tasks of our colonial masters was creating a united Nigerian colony; this was true during the colonial era and remained true in the post (neo-) colonial era. Because the country is composed of different ethnic groups and nationalities, the question of its unity is inevitability one and the same as the National Question. The imperialist solution to this National Question was a socio-economic system of federalism in the spirit of exploitation that defines capitalism. This federalist system is based on two principles:


1. 1. Concentration of wealth at the center and


2 2. Sharing this wealth among the ruling class according to an ethno-regional formula.


Under this system, a supra-regional center called the federal government became the most lucrative institution and this created the first basis of intra-elite conflict i.e. the struggle to control the center. Another basis of conflict among the ruling class is the specifics of the ethno-regional formula according to which the central wealth is shared.


This imperialist federalism thus possesses both centripetal and centrifugal elements. The former is the lucrative center and the promise of having a decent share of the national cake; this draws members of ruling class close to one another and contributes to the national unity. On the other hand, the struggle over the control of the federal government and disputes over the specifics of the sharing formula push the ruling elites away from one another and threaten national unity. This contradiction of federalism has been a defining feature of ruling class dynamics in the First Republic and the era of military dictatorship (punctuated momentarily by the second republic and Shoneka’s reign) as well as the PDP era. At a micro-level, the contradiction reveals itself as the settler/indigene conflict.


The various manifestations of the federalist contradictions include:


1. 1.The 1953 Kano riots


2. 2.Dispute over results of 1962 and 1963 censuses


3. 3.1962 declaration of state of emergency in the western region and the trial and imprisonment of Awolowo for treason charges


4. 4.The coup and counter-coup that saw the end of the first republic and the assassination of Sardauna, Balewa, Akintola and Ironsi, among others


5. 5.Massacre of Igbos in the North


6. 6.The ethnic civil war


7. 7.Coups and counter-coups of the military era


8. 8.Rise of groups agitating for the rights of nationalities indigenous to Niger Delta region such as The Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People (MOSOP)


9. 9.June 12 elections controversy and the pro-democracy movement it triggered


10. 10.The birth of PDP with its zoning and rotation policy


11. 11.Sharia movement in the North and rise of Boko Haram insurgency


12. 12.PDP’s zoning policy controversy, rise of Jonathan to power and 2011 post-election violence,


The above list is not meant to be exhaustive. In addition to these macro-level conflicts, the contradictions of imperialist federalism manifest themselves at micro-level as the numerous indigene/settler conflicts and include:Tafawa Balewa (1991), Zagon Kataf (1992), various clashes between Hausas and Biroms in Jos. Others include: in Delta State between the Urhobo, the Igbo and the Itsekeri; in Osun State between the Ife and Modakeke; in Benue state between the Tiv and Idoma; and in Taraba state between the Jukun and the Kuteb. Only that it is good to note that some of these indigene/settler conflicts go far back to the pre-colonial times and are only made worse by colonialist federal system.


The conflicts created by contradictions of the federalist system have already became too painful for many Nigerians. There is a widespread belief among many citizens that we just cannot continue like that; something drastic needs to happen. The imperialist federalist system has proven to be an inadequate solution to the national question. So let us see if the current ruling class can solve this problem:


First it is helpful in our analysis to realize that federalism lies in a continuum of systems of governance; at one extreme is the unitary state and at the other extreme is a confederation; in between lies federalism. The options of the ruling class are to either move right towards a unitary state or left towards a confederation; this means either a stronger or a weaker center. There is no third option. Let us take these two options in turns and see how the ruling class can handle each.


A stronger center


A stronger center or unitary state means weaker regions and states. But a basis of intra-elite conflict is a lucrative center; growing the national cake will only lead to heightened conflict and competition. It also means tremendous powers for the ethnic group that manages to control the center and this may trigger rebellion. Many believe that was what triggered coup against Ironsi after he announced unprecedented powers for the federal government. The distrust between the ruling elites of various nationalities will prevent a consensual move towards a unitary state; so a move rightwards is ruled out.


A weaker center


The other option is to move in the direction of a confederation weakening the center thereby removing one of the bases of intra-elite conflict and competition. This option sounds nice but a concrete analysis of our political landscape will prove that it is no less impractical than the first option.


A weaker center means shrinking the national cake by allowing individual regions/states to retain resources locally. Such an action will create winners and losers among the ruling class; those from resource-rich regions will have more and those from resource-poor regions will have less (at least in the short term). This will prevent an elite consensus; the future losers will oppose the move vehemently and the future winners support it chauvinistically. Without an elite consensus, this path cannot be taken. Unless if it will be imposed by the future winners. But such enforcement requires a strong center dominated by the future winners. What this enforcement may look like in practice is, for example, a Niger Delta President, like the current one, to enforce local control of resources defying his party and ignoring the House and the Judiciary. We all know he is going to be impeached and if he is backed by a section of the military, there would be civil war.


Thus it is clear from our analysis that the ruling class (bourgeoisie) cannot take the country out of its crisis because it can neither move right towards a unitary state nor left towards a confederation. These are the only options available to national bourgeoisie, options they cannot take; this leaves them in a state of exhausted possibilities. The bourgeoisie class is in a degenerate state and cannot solve the contradictions of its own class let alone solve the problems of other classes. Unable to solve the National Question (which is essentially a bourgeois question), the bourgeoisie class is even less capable of carrying out the democratic task or development of productive forces.

CONCEPTUALIZING NIGERIA'S RELIGIOUS CRISIS INTO A HYPOTHETICAL RESEARCH MODEL

CONCEPTUALIZING NIGERIA'S RELIGIOUS CRISIS INTO A HYPOTHETICAL RESEARCH MODEL: -Semiu Akanmu


 In every problem solving methodology or strategy, it is indispensable to understand all contributing variables and their level of significance to aid a holistic provision of panacea. This is the approach of solving issues in climes where policy implementation are marshaled based on R & D, and not 'fire brigade' nor 'my-personal-principle' approach like that of Nigeria's leaders.

In the model conceptualized, Religious crisis being the dependent variable, has Religious Mal-admonition, Religious Misconception and Religious bigotry as the independent variables (though, religious misconception is also seen to be dependent of religious mal-admonition), but Deprivation/Perceived injustice, Poverty, and Political plot (International & Domestic) play a moderating role in the actualization of religious crisis, while education will play a moderating role on all the three independent variables, wth a possibility of an inverse/negative effect.

Research Model

Where pragmatism, proactiveness and crisis deterability are the ingredients of STATE's governance, all these observed constructs/variables must be well  attended to in order to actualize a religious crisis-free society as being experienced in other countries of the world even with their multiracial and faith heterogeneity status.

NOTE: The relationship between these variables as diagrammatically represented are theoretically and practically justifiable.

BH ACCUSES SSS OF PLANTING BOMBS IN KANO MOSQUE

BH ACCUSES SSS OF PLANTING BOMBS IN KANO MOSQUE

Abubakr Shekau

The extremist Boko Haram sect, has denied media reports alleging that four of its members were arrested Friday, in Kano, attempting to bomb a Jumaat mosque at Fagge area of the metropolis. The group, in an statement sent to media houses Saturday, also accused the State Security Service, SSS, of orchestrating the plot in order to discredit it, describing such a practice as normal among security services in many countries.
"We are aware these types of ugly trend exists among security services such as the SSS, in order to discredit 'Gods warriors' but we are confident they will never succeed by God's grace because our aim is to ensure the existence of a strong Islamic practice,” the sect said.
The group also paid tribute to Habibu Bama, one of its members who died of gunshot wounds he sustained while being captured by the JTF in Damaturu, Yobe State, on  Thursday. "We are gladdened by the martyrdom of our brother Habibu Bama. We pray God accept his sacrifice, that is the best ending to any true believer," the statement said.
The group also reiterated its earlier warning to media houses it accused of unbalanced reporting. "As much as possible we do not wish to engage the media in any hot exchanges, the condition we gave was that any media house that knows that it cannot relay messages we circulated the way it is or even refuse to do so completely, then it should also not report the government side even if it is President Goodluck Jonathan that spoke, otherwise it will have itself to blame," it said.

Power rotatn is the cause? the losers of the last electn re responsible? BH wants shariah?they re possible/complementary causes. ask me why

In further dialectics of this tweet: Power rotatn is the cause? the losers of the last electn re responsible? BH wants shariah?they re possible/complementary causes. ask me why
@SemiuAkanmu on Twitter

In answering the question "why all the three highlights are possible complementary causes of our present state of insecurity in Nigeria?"

History had simply explained the dominance of Muslims in the North, Christians' dominance in the South-East/ South-South, and an averagely balanced mix-population in the south west via the islamic gospel evangelism of Usman dan Fodio (for the North), and the Missionary immigrants through badagry and coast of Rivers state (for the south-south/south east). This population advantage had been a two-edge sword for the respective organised religionists in these respective zones, evidently shown in their religious bigotry, vis-a-vis nepotism, and religious wrongheadedness.

North where the predominant religion is Islam is seen by the Muslims as an advantage to push forth their interest of a religious state where Shariah will be the instrument of legal jurisdiction, however the mode of actualizing this differs: while some believe it is an intellectual warfare which will be time-consuming, others believe taking up arms is the way out, the latter is mostly detested by the fold due to its inconsistency with Quranic authorities, however it evidently polarized the fold to sects; largely diverse in their ideology. 
This sympathy and subjectivity inherent in an average Muslim is what is exploited by the ruling class especially our characterized politicians to win the interest of this religious populace on the premise that they will be in support of shariah in as much they are voted into power. Zamfara under the leadership of Yerima Sanni is an evidence towards this direction.

As the intellectual advocate of Shariah like Jama't Nasril Islam continues their religious struggle and advocacy, Moh'd Yussuf perhaps finds the methodology slow or unyielding, believing schooling and harnessing education to forge the Shariah struggle ahead is counter-productive, hence he declared it Haram (forbidden), amongst some other reasons of his. Therefore, the existence of Boko haram have been, but in low-key since money and large recruits will be instrumental for an aggressive campaign.
This is the opportunity taken by the politicians to romance this trigger-happy group on the disguise that 'we are planning to implement shariah if we win', thus all support will be given, mainly as political thugs and assassins (accusation of Sambo, Shettima, Adume links to Boko Haram are evidences towards this direction).

This simply argues the opium that is characterized in the Boko Haram's advocacy, simply as a violence-oriented group, whose ideology is condemned by recognized legal jurists and authorities in Islam, to the extent that some have declared them non-Muslims because of the abominable acts that characterized their struggle.

Because of the unclearheadedness, self-centredness and the display of do-or-die antics of the Nigeria political players (the election losers & unfavourable persons by the choice of GEJ), these people (BH) are 'possibly' now employed on the platform of supporting their struggle which they are interested in pursuing, but unknowingly and covertly heating up the polity and the political landscape for their own political aggrandizement.

....................................
Simply my analysis: Semiu Ayobami Akanmu

Patrick Owoeye Aziza Axed As National Security Adviser -SAHARA REPORTER

Patrick Aziza

By SaharaReporters, New York

SaharaReporters has just learnt that President Goodluck Jonathan has approved the removal of General Patrick Aziza as his National Security Adviser.

Mr. Aziza, a retired military officer, has been criticized as an inept adviser on national security. His tenure has witnessed an escalation in deadly bomb attacks by the extremist Islamist sect, Boko Haram.

A source told SaharaReporters that Mr. Jonathan’s decision to fire the NSA was a gesture to many Northern politicians who have accused Mr. Aziza of openly politicizing his office by making statements that disparage the Northern parts of Nigeria.

“Many big-time Northerners, including members of the PDP, complained to President Jonathan when General Aziza blamed in-fighting within the party for the increasing violence in the country,” said the source.
Another source close to President Jonathan refused to confirm the removal of General Aziza, but told SaharaReporters that he was aware that Mr. Jonathan “intends to explore various means of arresting the disturbing state of insecurity in the country.”

One source in the security sector revealed that Sambo Dasuki was the top contender to replace Mr. Azazi.
SaharaReporters rang Mr. Aziza’s telephone number, but was unable to obtain his reaction since his phone was busy.

Judge threatens to discharge 24 suspected Boko Haram members -Vanguard

Judge threatens to discharge 24 suspected Boko Haram members -Vanguard

Abuja – Justice Abdul Kafarati, a Judge of the Federal High Court, on Thursday in Abuja threatened to discharge the 24 suspected Boko Haram members standing trial before the court.

The judge, who granted the police a last adjournment for Sept. 18, said that the prosecution counsel had not showed diligence in prosecuting the case.

“I should have discharged the accused persons today but I am compelled by justice to restrain such action and allow the prosecution one last chance.

“The court had adjourned this matter four times at the instance of the prosecutor, who had always promised to bring his witnesses to court but failed each time.

“I shall, therefore, discharge the accused persons should the prosecution fail to bring the witnesses to court on the next adjourned date.

“The prosecution was ordered to avail the accused persons’ lawyers’ proof of evidence.

“It is against the court procedure not to do that a year after the accused persons were arraigned,’’ Kafarati said.

Some of the suspects are Umar Alia 21, Musa Yakubu Gava (38), Awalu Mohd (35), Modu Bama (36), Yakubu Modu Kolibe (15), Mohd Alhaji Modu (23), Badare Hassan (27), Mohd Umar (21) and Mohd Sheriff (23).

The police alleged that the accused, who were facing a five-count charge, conspired to commit felony and act of terrorism in Maiduguri.

The prosecution held that the accused committed an offence punishable under Section 33(1) (b) of the Prevention of Terrorism Act, 2011, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria.

Thirteen months after the police arraigned the suspects, no witness had been presented.

At the resumed hearing, Mr Bernard Nnamdi, the Counsel to the police, filed an oral application, praying for the adjournment of the case because of the absence of the prosecution witnesses.

The application was jointly opposed to by Kevin Okoro, Mohammed Lucas and Mohammed Ipa, counsel to the accused.

They urged the court to discharge the accused on the grounds of lack of diligent prosecution.

They held that all the adjournments witnessed in the case so far were at the instance of the prosecution counsel.

They further noted that the police was only interested in the detention of the “presumably innocent persons.”

The counsel said that the prosecution had failed to avail the accused with the proof of evidence after over one year of their detention.

They also said that Section 280 of the Criminal Procedure Act empowered the judge to discharge the accused if the prosecutor failed to provide the cause of action. (NAN)

Brazil calls off friendly match with Nigeria - News of Africa

Brazil calls off friendly match with Nigeria - News of Africa

The activities of terror group, Boko Haram, in northern Nigeria have denied the Super Eagles of a high-profile friendly against Brazil.

The Eagles were due to play the former world champions in Nigeria during a FIFA window in September but the recent bombings in some northern states forced the Brazilians to reconsider their proposed visit to Nigeria and sought another African side for the friendly.

The Selacao thus settled for the Bafana Bafana of South Africa, but the match will be played either in Brazil or the USA on September 7.

The Nigeria Football Federation however said the Nigeria versus Brazil friendly would still hold as planned. An official of the football body told The PUNCH that the organisers had not given up on bringing the Samba Boys to Nigeria.

“The friendly has not been cancelled; the organisers are still hopeful of sorting out a few details in order to bring the Brazilians to Nigeria. It is actually Guinness The Match arrangement and the agent that is putting the match together is confident it will hold,” the NFF official said.

Nigeria are looking to play a high-profile friendly as coach Stephen Keshi continue to strengthen the team ahead of their crucial qualifiers for the 2013 Africa Cup of Nations and the 2014 World Cup.

The bombings in the north have also affected the hosting of league matches in the region. The Nigeria Premier League was forced to suspend the Week 28 match between Jigawa Golden Stars and Ocean Boys indefinitely due to the crisis in Kaduna. Both sides were scheduled to play in Jigawa on Wednesday.

Ocean Boys were forced to return to Abuja on Tuesday when they turned back from their journey to Dutse, the capital of Jigawa State.

The new date for the match has yet to be decided by the NPL

Exclusive: U.S. To Slap "Terrorist" Label On Nigerian Militants -Reuters

By John Shiffman and Mark Hosenball

(Reuters) - The U.S. government is expected to formally apply a "foreign terrorist" label on Thursday to three alleged leading figures of the violent Nigerian militant group Boko Haram, officials said.

The action by the State and Treasury departments follows growing pressure on the Obama Administration to take stronger action against Boko Haram. The group, which says it wants to establish an Islamic caliphate in northern Nigeria, has stepped up attacks on Christian places of worship this year.

Thursday's anticipated action, officials said, involves applying the "terrorist" designation to three men presumed to be central figures in the group.

The three individuals, an official said, are Abubakar Shekau, aged around 43, described as a Boko Haram leader who allegedly aligned himself with al Qaeda in a video message; Abubakar Adam Kambar, aged roughly 35; and Khalid al Barnawi, aged approximately 36. All three are native Nigerians.

The expected action will freeze any assets they have in the United States, and bar U.S. persons from any transactions with them.

It is among the first such action the U.S. government has taken against Boko Haram, but falls short of demands from some U.S. lawmakers and the Justice Department to designate the entire group as a "foreign terrorist organization."

The State Department has been under pressure to act against Boko Haram for months. In January, Lisa Monaco, the Justice Department's top national security official, sent a letter to the State Department arguing that the Nigerian group met the criteria for a "foreign terrorist" listing because it either engages in terrorism that threatens the United States or has a capability or intent to do so.

Boko Haram increasingly is seen as a potent threat to Nigeria, the continent's most populous state and major oil producer, and as part of growing arc of Islamist extremist groups stretching across northern Africa.
More recently, a group of Republican senators led by Scott Brown of Massachusetts introduced legislation requiring the State Department to determine whether Boko Haram should be designated as a terrorist group.

Republican Representative Patrick Meehan, who chairs a Homeland Security subcommittee in the House, also introduced an amendment that would force the administration to add Boko Haram to the terrorism list or explain why it was not doing so.

However, U.S. diplomats are weighing these demands against counter arguments, including those made by a group of academic experts on Africa who sent a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last month urging her not to designate Boko Haram as a terrorist group.

The academics argued that the move could backfire by enhancing the group's reputation among potential recruits and other militant groups. A U.S. designation might also empower more radical elements of Boko Haram, which is divided into factions, the professors said.

In her letter to the State Department, Monaco of the Justice Department reported that since 2009 Boko Haram has conducted violent attacks against Nigeria's "police, politicians, public institutions and civilian population."

Monaco said that according to press reports, Boko Haram claimed responsibility for 510 victims in 2011, and also took credit for a January 20 attack on government buildings in Kano in which more than 160 were killed.

She said that although Boko Haram attacks until now have occurred only within Nigeria, Washington should not underestimate the threat the group poses to U.S. interests.

ARE WE THERE YET? -Dr. Hakeem Baba Ahmed

  Dr. Hakeem Baba Ahmed

ARE WE THERE YET?
“If two men on the same job agree all the time, then one of them is useless. If they disagree all the time, then both are useless.” Darryl F. Zanuck

Ironically, President Jonathan started it all. In his bid to convince a skeptical nation that he needed to remove the subsidy on petroleum products, he harped on the existence of waste and abuse of the subsidy policy which made the product cheap, but deprived the state of the resources it needed to invest in critical sectors. The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Minister of Finance followed through with shocking statistics on the drain to the economy which the subsidy policy represented. There were remote hints at large scale corruption and systemic plunder, but these became louder only when civil society and organized labour began to ask searching questions about the cost of imported and consumed petroleum products, as well as quantities and benchmarks on appropriate pricing.
Suddenly, the dark veils around the fuel subsidy world was being lifted, partly because citizens asked awkward questions; and partly because the administration which made such desperate moves to remove the subsidy failed to answer such questions. No one could say how much petroleum we consumed on a daily basis; or how much we paid for its importation; or why it cost what it did; or why we had to pay more than 100% more for a litre of petroleum. When it began to filter through to the citizenry that corruption was largely responsible for the huge cost of the subsidy policy, Nigerians demanded that Jonathan removed corruption, not subsidy. The National Assembly, with its well-developed instinct for opportunity waded in with ad hoc committees to probe the subsidy policy. An almighty confrontation took place between a well-mobilized citizenry and an administration which had committed itself to a battle it was ill-prepared to win, but could not lose. In the end, both sides lost. The administration raised the pump price on petroleum, but left itself open to searching demands for transparency and massive inquiry. Nigerians lost the battle to keep the subsidy where it was, but gained a strategic foothold on the administration’s defenses, particularly its low capacity on relating with big business and corruption.
The probing hearings by the National Assembly looked promising. The House of Representatives Ad Hoc Committee in particular looked like what the nation needed to expose the deep and elaborate scam which cost us trillions in stolen funds, and which everyone involved in managing our economy said had to be stopped, or our economy will crash. It was headed by a well-known legislator who had carefully cultivated an image of Mr Clean. The hearings were open, televised, and full of drama. Everything you could expect in a probe with high stakes was there: threats of blackmail; strong denials and bullying tactics; elaborate plays to the gallery; conjectures; facts; half facts and falsehood dressed as evidence.
But like most probes of this nature, the public actually sees very little of the action. Substantial amount of energy and maneuvering takes places behind hearing rooms and television cameras, when high stakes and endemic corruption size each other up, and negotiate a settlement. And the stakes could not have come much higher. The target of the probe is a cartel intimately connected with the administration. It is substantially the power base and financial powerhouse on which the Jonathan Presidency relied to come to power. Some of the biggest names under investigation are the economic pillars of the administration. The assault on the subsidy policy was a declaration of war and although it was triggered by the Jonathan administration, the incursion of the national assembly, and the very high expectations over the exposure of unprecedented sleaze had threatened a major lifeline of many multi billionaires.
It would have been foolhardy to think these extremely wealthy and well-connected interests will not fight back. Since it appeared as if the presidency had inadvertently hung them out to dry, they sized up the enemy in the national assembly. It was an enemy they knew very well. The legislature’s many layers of committees and other mechanisms for oversight is a familiar facade behind which they have transacted many businesses. Every activity of the executive or the economy has a committee which interfaces with it in the legislature. Committees are powerful. Their words or findings on any issue is virtually gospel for their colleagues in the House or Senate. Chairmen of Committees are extraordinarily powerful, which is why the fight over them is so intense. Chairmen could take decisions for Committees, and in most instances they broker “resolutions” between committees and targets of probes or subjects of oversight. Everyone who has interfaced with committees of the legislature comes out with massive bruises and tightly sealed lips.
The only way the national assembly probe into the fuel subsidy scam could have yielded genuine dividends was if the legislature operated absolutely above board. This means resisting both the pressure from the cartel to compromise, or pressure from within to have a bite at the cherry. It appears to have capitulated without a fight under both pressures.
We have now come full circle. The unheard-of corruption which characterized the subsidy policy now threatens to destroy all evidence against it. All the legalese and face-saving stunts by the legislature will not salvage a report which is badly tainted by cynical manipulation of rules, institutional mechanisms, security agencies and public opinion. The reality is that the findings of the committee are not worth the paper they are written on. Nothing will obliterate the infamy of the chairman is delisting of Otedola’s companies on the floor of the house. Nor would the re-listing of the companies salvage the integrity of the report or of the House of Representatives. The collusion of the executive arm through the involvement of law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies will further dent the integrity of the exercise. Why should President Jonathan or other Nigerians believe that Otedola is the only person who was asked to give bribes to the chairman or the committee? Why should Nigerians believe a word of the other members of the committee? What, in fact, is the committee doing at this stage, when its report has been submitted to the full house? Just how much behind-the-scene activity around the subsidy probe do Nigerians know? Why was it necessary for the House to pass a vote of confidence on its Speaker? Does it suggest that he or his position are under threat as a result of the muck from the scandal?
Painful as it is, it is fair to say that the Farouk Lawal report is tainted beyond redemption. The president should now constitute a judicial panel of inquiry to examine every facet of the subsidy policy, including the Farouk Lawal report and the bribery allegation. This suggestion itself will be dismissed by many Nigerians who are convinced, not without some justification, that the judiciary is just as bad as the executive and legislative arms. But this is not a reason not to insist on an open, judicial inquiry. Certainly, it will be difficult believe that the same Ad Hoc Committee with a new chairman, a House which is desperately interested in covering up its weaknesses at this stage; security and law-enforcement agencies whose involvement in the saga has already substantially compromised them; and a president who has shown a very weak political will to fight corruption, will produce a result out of this tragic development that will substantially damage corruption. Our anger as a people at the impunity and arrogance with which power robes us of our few possessions is yet to reach its limits. But it is getting there, and many young people in particular are asking if we are there yet. We must avoid getting there. A judicial panel of inquiry into the subsidy scam and scandal is the only option left

More suicide bombing coming task force warns....

More suicide bombing coming task force warns....

Maiduguri residents were told yesterday to prepare for more suicide bombings. The Joint Task Force (JTF) - Operation Restore Order (ORO) - in a statement by its spokesman Lt. Col. Sagir Musa, warned of plans by terrorists to carry Impoverished Explosive Devices (IEDs) in stolen vehicles. It warned the public to report to the appropriate bodies immediately a vehicle is stolen. The statement reads: “Information recently available to the JTF ORO in Maiduguri indicated that there have been desperate moves by Boko Haram terrorists to steal/snatch vehicles to be used for terrorists’ activities by implanting “The Task Force wishes to alert members of the public, particularly those whose vehicles have been stolen, to immediately report such incident to the nearest police station or to the JTF as such vehicles if used for terrorism acts would lead to owners of such vehicles being as collaborators and accomplices.” The JTF spokesman said the task force’s troops and Department of State Services personnel have arrested six suspected Boko Haram members involved in the attack on EYN Church in Biu, Borno State, on June 17,were some worshippers were killed.
Those arrested are in JTF custody and are being interrogated.

President Jonathan’s Delegation To Brazil Is World’s Largest, At 116! -SAHARA REPORTERS

By SaharaReporters, New York


As Nigerians lament the abrupt departure of President Goodluck Jonathan for Brazil in the middle of violence and counter-violence in the North, SaharaReporters has gathered that the Nigerian ruler arrived at his destination with 116 men and women, the largest national delegation, contrary to his pledge in January to travel at less weight and expense.
Our sources say the team is made up of:
•    25 personal aides
•    18 aides of Patience Jonathan
•    2 members of the National Assembly
•    5 Ministers
•    2 Governors, and
•    63 officials from the Ministries of Enviroment, Foreign Affairs, National Planning and Petroleum Resources.
The junket will continue for Mr. Jonathan next week Thursday when he will be in Brussels for the World Customs Conference, scheduled for June 28-30.  He will be taking with him about 57 people, including 26 aides, 3 Ministers, 8 members of the National Assembly, and 20 other government officials.
From June 25 to 29, Mrs. Jonathan will be in Maryland, United States, accompanied by 36 people: 18 aides, 4 wives of Governors, and 14 friends and associates.
Nigerian political parties yesterday lambasted Mr. Jonathan’s decision to leave for Brazil, just hours after violence and counter-violence had reportedly resulted in over 74 dead and hundreds injured.  On Sunday, the president called on God to intervene in the violence.
But he has also promised to see to the end of the Islamic militant group militant Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati Wal-Jihad, widely-known as Boko Haram, this month.  After he made that pledge in April, the militants promised to make June a bloody month in order to prove that Jonathan has no power over them.  Some helpless Christians have in the past few days resorted to reprisal attacks against Muslims.
Only yesterday, as Jonathan hopped on one of his gleaming new executive jets and left the chaos in Nigeria behind, Boko Haram notified SaharaReporters that it would launch even more devastating attacks on churches and government buildings in the coming days.
The group’s contact person said Boko Haram had line up about 300 suicide bombers to attack churches in Southern Kaduna and in Plateau State in its determination to exact considerable revenge for the Muslims killed in Christian reprisals in the last few days.

WE Will Shed More Christians Blood Take Over Govt Buildings - BOKO HARAM. Sahara Reporters

WE Will Shed More Christians Blood. Take Over Govt Buildings - BOKO HARAM.

**Recruits 300 Suicide Bombers to Churches in Jos and Kaduna.

**We will Hit FCT before the end of June in a Big Way.

**More coordinated Church attacks as never happened before.

The militant Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati Wal-Jihad, an Islamist sect widely known as 

Boko Haram, has revealed to SaharaReporters that it plans to launch further devastating 

attacks on churches and government buildings in the coming days and weeks.

On the heels of this week’s escalation of sectarian violence in Kaduna State, the sect said it 

planned to make the month of June 2012 the bloodiest month yet in its violent and bloody 

campaigns against those it tagged infidels.A contact for the sect told SaharaReporters that

 his group’s planned attacks would be focused and bloody. The group’s spokesperson

 claimed that Boko Haram had moved some 300 suicide bombers to attack churches in 

Southern Kaduna as well as Plateau State. The source also stated that the sect was 

determined to exact massive revenge for the Muslims killed in the Jos and Southern Kaduna 

areas.

To achieve its current deadly agenda, the contact said Boko Haram had recruited the sons 

and daughters of some Muslims killed in past religious conflicts. He revealed that the new 

recruits are sworn to an oath of secrecy and allegiance before they are sent to train in

 handling weapons, bomb making and suicide bombing in Mauritania and  Somalia. On the 

trainees’ return to Nigeria, they are handed over to Boko Haram “welfare officers” who 

ensure that all their needs are met.The contact disclosed that Boko Haram’s welfare officers 

provide material support for the suicide bombers’ families and relatives before and after the

 recruits are sent on assignments, mostly suicide missions that end their lives. He stated that 

Boko Haram’s welfare officers continue to cater to the needs of suicides’ families, often 

paying them huge "gratuities."The contact for Boko Haram stated that the planned attacks 

will almost quadruple on Sunday when the sect plans to attack several churches 

simultaneously to prove their deadly potency. "Boko Haram intends to show to President 

Jonathan that his military advisers are just deceiving him," said the source.Apart from 

attacks on churches, the contact said the sect plans to attack or take over government 

buildings in Kano, Kaduna, Yobe and Gombe states. He added that the sect also plans a 

major attack on the Federal Capital territory (FCT) before the end of June to cap its possibly 

bloodiest campaign in June. He said Boko Haram wanted to prove that the Nigerian security 

agencies have in no way hampered the sect’s operations and that security forces cannot 

match the group’s deadly force. The contact explained that the decision to intensify attacks 

this June was reportedly taken at the sect’s recent "parliamentary" meeting. - sahara 

reporters.

ONDO GUBER POLLS: ACN PICKS AKEREDOLU - Liberty Report

Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN)

AKURE – INDICATIONS emerged, yesterday, that the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, may have picked the former Nigerian Bar Association, President, Chief Rotimi Akeredolu, as its governorship candidate for the October 20 election in Ondo State.

This came as an in-law to the immediate past governor, Dr. Olusegun Agagu and former Okitipupa Local Government chairman, Mr. Segun Ayerin and hundreds of the party’s supporters have defected to the ruling Labour Party, LP.

Sources within ACN said the leaders of the party met in Lagos, yesterday, and finally picked Akeredolu as the party’s flagbearer.

Another source said the choice of Akeredolu has been communicated to other 30 aspirants jostling for the ticket.
It was learnt that the aspirants were from five shortlisted to three before the leaders finally agreed on Akeredolu.

The three shortlisted include Akeredolu, Segun Abraham and Saka Lawal while Dr. Olu Agunloye and Professor Ajayi Boroffice were dropped by the leaders.

Vanguard learnt that the choice of Akeredolu irked two of the aspirants, who immediately after leaving the meeting, initiated plans to join other political parties to contest for the governorship positions.

This,according to sources, was after their suggestion that instead of imposition of Akeredolu, a primary should be conducted for the most popular candidate to emerge, was rejected by the leaders. The leaders, it was gathered, insisted that the seat should be zoned to the Northern part of the state.

Source: Vangaurd

Syria, the Arab spring and Western Intervention -Khilafah.com

Syria, the Arab spring and Western Intervention

- Khilafah.com

In what has now become a regular occurrence we may now be in the initial stages of military intervention by the West, again. For Iraq it was its weapons of mass destruction, with Libya it was the possible bloodbath in Benghazi by Colonel Gaddafi’s forces.

Now, for Syria, the threat of civil war is being trumpeted as the reasoning from one Western capital to the other. This is a clear development away from the 15 months of constantly rejecting even the notion of military intervention citing the complicated nature of the of any intervention and the potential spread of chaos throughout the region as the reasons why military action was out of the question.

Western relations with Syria have always been covered with myths, lies and doublespeak; the last 15 months have merely been the latest episode. As the Syrian crisis escalates it is important that we can decipher between the reality and the many myths the West have constructed to hide their true intensions.

Western Surrogate

Syria may have always been depicted as an international pariah state that supports Hezbollah and Palestinian militants. However, away from public scrutiny the US government has viewed Syria as an important surrogate that is needed in the region. In Iraq the Syrian regime protected US interests by stemming the insurgency and constructing America’s political architecture. Syria played an active role in infiltrating the Sunni insurgents. After the fall of Saddam, many Iraqi’s fled Iraq and sought refuge in Syria. Syria set up militant training camps to recruit and train Iraqi refugees into fighters with the explicit purpose of infiltrating the Iraqi resistance, providing real-time intelligence to US officials.

On the Palestinian issue Syria has engaged with Israel on the two state solution, including the Golan Heights – a US solution for the region. Whilst such talks have been on and off, the Syrian regime nevertheless through peace overtures to Israel facilitated America’s stranglehold over the region. Israel’s prominent daily newspaper, Ha’aretz, ran an editorial immediately after the start of the Syrian uprising declaring Assad to be “Israel’s favourite dictator of all” and that “it seems Assad has wall-to-wall support here, as though he were king of Israel.”

US-EU v Russia-China

The international response to Syria has been depicted for months as Russia and China supporting al-Assad, with the principled US and EU on the other side. It was the UK and France that touted the removal of al-Assad when the uprising began in Syria in April 2011. The US response to Syria until recently has been very clear and was outlined in unequivocal terms by Hilary Clinton in an interview with Lucia Annunziata of Italy’s ‘In Mezz’Ora,’ she was asked whether the US was applying a double standard when dealing with Libyan leader Col. Muammar al-Gaddafi and other Arab dictators who are killing their citizens, such as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. She said “There are deep concerns about what is going on inside Syria, and we are pushing hard for the government of Syria to live up to its own stated commitment to reforms, what I do know is that they have an opportunity still to bring about a reform agenda. Nobody believed Qaddafi would do that. People do believe there is a possible path forward with Syria. So we’re going to continue joining with all of our allies to keep pressing very hard on that.” Hilary Clinton explained that she held out hope that the Syrian government would institute reforms that could satisfy the demands of protesters and end the government-sponsored violence against civilians. There was no hope for that outcome in Libya.

Bashar al-Assad has been a loyal surrogate to the US, the US had no plans to abandon him, as replacing him would be near impossible in a country where he brutally oppresses his people. As the US made one excuse after the other for him, Britain and France beamed his atrocities around the world.

When this position became untenable, as the massacres continued, the US faced a dilemma, the Syrian National Council (SNC) and the Local Coordination Committee (LCC) failed to coalesce into a unified movement. The US hoped to possibly replace al-Assad with a new breed of loyalists, however undermined by internal squabbling and power struggles and having little credibility in the eyes of the people the US turned towards the UN to buy itself time.

Various proposals were put forward with regards to Syria from sanctions to UN observer missions and a resolution condemning the Syrian leadership with vague prospects of intervention. This action i.e. the involvement of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the resolution to the Syrian crisis, effectively placed the solution to the Syrian crisis in the hands of the superpowers, who themselves were all competing with each other.

Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister said: “Russia was not going to accept any resolutions that might open the way to foreign intervention or that would pre-determine the political outcome in Syria.”Russia and China attempted to complicate the US plan in Syria by opposing attempts to pass a vague resolution and then using this as a cover for militarily intervention. It was under the guise of imposing no fly zones in Libya that the West armed the Benghazi rebels, trained them, France, Britain and the US then cultivated links with different personalities to maintain influence after the overthrow of Gaddafi. Both Russia and China generally oppose the West and use the forum of the UN to oppose Western planes. Such positions are generally weak and the veto from Russia was no different. Aside from a naval refuelling facility in Syria, Russia lacks any political influence in Syria. The stance by primarily Russia and then China is in reality was weak attempt to influence the Syrian crisis.

In truth Britain and France have always been calling for military intervention to oust al-Assad, as this will give them the opportunity to intervene in the country and shape the nation where their interests can be protected post – al-Assad, whilst the US has obstructed this by utilising various delaying tactics, which will allow it the time to construct a replacement for al-Assad.

The Kofi Annan Plan

The Kofi Annan plan, endorsed by the West, allowed the regime time and space to commit arguably its worst atrocities since the start of the uprising. The UN observers have been impotent; the earlier Arab league observer mission was at times complicit with the regime. The idea was to allow time for the various fractured opposition figures – most of whom utterly lack credibility – to be manufactured into a government in waiting that would be compliant with Western interests; which would then replace Assad.

This plan has been nominally useless as the ceasefires prior to it. The task of observers is to inform the international community of unacceptable actions of those they have under observation. The international community was fully aware of the violence. The issue in Syria is not that the world is unaware of the violence, but that it is not able or willing to take steps to end it. Bashar al-Assad’s regime had shown that it is willing to do whatever it needs to do to defeat the opposition. It has retained the support of the military to suppress the opposition. Philip Gourevitch, the US author and journalist said: “In real life, the UN has effectively run cover for the Syrian regime's bloody campaign by deploying Kofi Annan, the weak and accommodating former secretary general, to Damascus. The peace plan Annan cooked up with Assad in late March is another soap bubble, and the UN military observers who are supposed to monitor it are useless – or worse: when the butchery began in Houla, the regime told the UN monitors to stay away, which they did, bringing back bad memories, from the mid-nineties, of the false promises of protection that were extended, under the UN flag, to the people of Bosnia and Rwanda before they were abandoned to their killers.”

Yemen Model

The US has recently touted a Yemen style arrangement – where the ruler and his immediate coterie are removed, but remnants of the regime remain in power, so maintaining the status quo as far the West is concerned. President Obama, together with the leaders of the G8 at Camp David in May 2012 stressed the need for al-Assad’s departure. He pointed to Yemen as a model for a political transition that could succeed in Syria. Following this the US National Security Advisor Thomas Donilon also stated that Obama raised the issue of a peaceful transition plan on the Yemeni model with the Prime Minister of Russia, Medvedev, on the sidelines of the G8 summit at Camp David. He added that this plan would be on the table for talks between Obama and Putin at the first meeting bringing them together after the G8.

In reality there exists no such model as the Yemen model. What took place in Yemen was an Anglo-American struggle over the country. The British Deputy Foreign Secretary for Middle Eastern affairs Evan Louis while meeting the Yemeni Ambassador in London on 24th November 2009 clarified regarding the situation in Yemen: “What is happening in Yemen is a proxy war.” The US used the war on terror to undermine Ali Abdullah-Saleh by accusing Yemen of being a hub for Al Qaeeda, Ali Abdullah-Saleh attempted to appease the US with a host of security guarantees which allowed the US to carry out drone attacks in the country. The Arab spring gave the US the opportunity to remove Saleh, who however dug in his heals with the support of Britain and in the face of demands by his own people to leave. He agreed on many occasions to a transition deal but constantly backtracked. The US continually called for theimmediate transition of power in Yemen, whilst Britain stopped at reforms. An eventual deal was struck in February 2012 which handed over Saleh’s powers to Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi, the Yemeni vice-president, giving Saleh a dignified exit.

The existing regime remained, one crony was replaced with another, albeit on this occasion one loyal to the US rather than Britain. This is the reality of the Yemen model being touted for Syria.

Civil War

After fifteen months of actively doing nothing, the West may need to intervene, because it fears the people’s revolt will defeat the regime; and that would not be in Western interests. The US is now openly calling for military intervention as an option as its interests are being affected. Its interest are at stake as the Ummah of Syria have rejected America’s proxies and are working to replace Assad with a sincere Islamic leadership. The Assad regime has been unable to quell the uprisings in Homs, Hama, Idlib and the stand-off has reached Aleppo as well as districts on the outskirts of Damascus – the seat of the regime. This has worried the US as well as the al-Assad regime who resorted to massacres such as Qubair and Houla as the people of Syria will replace Assad with a sincere ruler and not another puppet.

This recent development, has seen not the people of Syria, but the US and Europe constantly highlight the prospects of civil war. A civil war if it was the case would be between the Sunni’s and Alawites and would deflect from overthrowing the al-Assad regime. This would not only give the US further time to construct the post al-Assad regime - a strategy the US utilised in Iraq, but is now the pretext of foreign intervention. This can already be seen as the West has accused foreign insurgents of supporting the Free Syrian Army, thus tarnishing the FSA with the same brush as the Sunnis of Iraq were i.e. being helped by al-Qaeeda.

Military Intervention

The Ummah of Syria who is fighting to remove al-Assad has increased their capability, which has worried the US. This is why military intervention is being seriously considered. The Ummah in Syria has been at war for over a year now, with experience and aid from defecting Syrian troops, their fighting acumen has improved. The sharp increase in the number of destroyed Syrian army tanks and armoured fighting vehicles over the last month attests to the capability the Ummah. The influx of fighters from other countries as has been reported has also bolstered the Ummah. This influx includes experienced Syrian and Iraqi fighters who fought in the Iraq War against US forces. Their experience in improvised explosive devices (IED’s) would appear to have had an enormous effect on the Ummah’s capabilities to inflict casualties and damage on the Syrian military. 

This is why the Syrian military has in the last few months avoided costly armoured attacks on rebel-held urban areas where armour is more vulnerable. The regime is starting to rely more on artillery and attack helicopter support. Artillery and aviation offensive operations has continued with the military’s main assault units - the 4th Armoured Division, Republican Guard and 14th Special Forces, as well as the Shabiha, a local mercenary force, around Damascus.

Military intervention by the US and its allies will be to stop the Sunni Muslims overthrowing the al-Assad regime and engineering a transition. Any type of intervention is an immensely challenging task as the Sunni Muslims make up over 85% of the country’s population and control a similar amount of territory. Any foreign intervention in the country would need a large number of troops flown into the country in order to protect Aleppo, Damascus and Homs, the country’s largest and most important cities. Alongside this the country’s military Silos and heavy weapon depots will need to be secured.

The nightmare scenario for the US would be Sunni’s overthrow the al-Assad regime and take over the organs of the country including weapons depots and heavy military equipment. This will allow the Ummah to carry out an insurgency against the US and take on whatever the US deploys in the country.

In this scenario the US will need to deploy more than just Special Operation Forces (SOF’s), use the Alawites against the insurgency and work to fracture the Sunni resistance. A similar strategy was used in Iraq to break the insurgency.

In summary whoever possesses the country’s military equipment, air defence and heavy weaponry will probably prevail.

Conclusions

The last few weeks has seen the Syria crisis develop as the Ummah have made some significant strides in overthrowing the regime. The US until recently worked to construct an alternative, loyal leadership to al-Assad, however this has been complicated by the strides the Ummah has made. This has worried the US, who has now changed its tone with regards to intervening. It is unlikely the US can intervene immediately with the US presidential race beginning in July 2012 for elections in December 2012, however if the Ummah in Syria is on the path of overthrowing America’s loyal surrogate, civil war may well become the excuse to halt the Ummah’s demand for Islam in Syria.