2015: Relating Trust, Cynicism, Skepticism and Resistance to change in understanding Nigerians’ disposition

2015: Relating Trust, Cynicism, Skepticism and Resistance to change in understanding Nigerians’ disposition

By Semiu A. Akanmu

2015, the journey is far and near! The dispositional attachment to this fateful year varies to the individual in question. However, to all Nigerians irrespective of their political consciousness and partisanship, the year 2015 is another significant year; a year of fifth term in the arithmetic sequence of a progression that had its first term as 1999. 2015 will be another year to experiment some delicacies of concocted political dishes, a year to test the viability of some mathematical models of political permutation and combination, and possibly a year to further validate the historical and professional electoral highhandedness that pervades Nigeria’s electoral system. To an unpartisan Nigerian, 2015 is another year of hope, praying that his thumb-printing will change the fortune of his dear country that had been in the hands of executive rogues and treasury looters.

Since the present socio-economic state of a supposed giant of Africa is in abysmal, the nationals of this country are left with no other option than to advocate for change. And just as I underscored in previous writings, this change is better seen at the centre since it is the mitochondria that survives the other components of the Nigeria ‘cell’. A factor credited to the unitary nature of our ironic Federalism.

However, could it be surprising that the change advocates are simultaneously resisting the same change they are advocating for? The Nigeria social commentators on a large scale are complaining bitterly of the retrogressive antics of the ruling party, since her emergence in Aso rock in 1999, and on that premise conclude that the party called PDP has nothing to deliver for the betterment of the Nigerian masses. But these same set of people have started badmouthing APC; the newly formed party to wrestle power and give PDP a chase out of Aso Rock in 2015. This initiative have been given all sorts of unprintable nomenclature, it is said to be a hopeless investment. To an observing social and behavioural scientist, this development is not surprising.

It is against the backdrop of behavioural response of Nigerians to 2015 political calculation that the conceptualization of a construct called ‘Resistance to Change’ is contextualized. Just as other constructs in the parlance of causality, there is always a cause to experience an effect. Indeed, there is a cause and effect linkage to the seeming resistance to change by these set of Nigerians. We need to look inwardly to discern the causes of this possibly counterproductive effect; Resistance to Change.

Stemming from the field of organisational management, resistance to change, skepticism, cynicism and trust are established related constructs. Though there are disparities in the outcomes of researches in modelling the four, the common submission however is that resistance to change is a result of skepticism and cynicism, and trust controls the rate of experiencing resistance to change, the moderating variable as to be rightly put.

Apart from those who are cynical being a natural symptom of pessimism, skepticism is mostly posited by managerial theorists as a consequence of betrayal. From the understanding of the theory of implied contract, it can be deduced that our political class are in contractual agreement with the citizenry via promises made during the electioneering campaign. The agreement is impliedly sealed through the masses’ choice by the process of voting, and in return, the citizens expect fulfilment of the electoral promises.

However, the contrary is born, the masses are betrayed, and the concept of mutual reciprocity is punctured as the leaders continue to water their hoggish propensity. The economic indices are unfavourable to the working class, the value of Naira goes bearish, and unemployment rate goes bullish. This experience over time since the advent of the fourth republic in 1999 had undoubtedly and arguably caused skepticism. Betrayal of trust could then be precisely conceptualised as cause, a catalytic contributing factor to skepticism. This is the hard lessons on the part of masses.

The power of trust cannot be underestimated as the experience goes tougher and farther. The Jonathan’s defiance of ‘I had no shoe’ theory came and finally murdered and buried the remnant of the trust: a left over of the Obasanjo’s regime, and the recuperating one of the Late Yaradua’s. Nigerians invested trust, the trust was malnurtured, it became malnourished, Nigerians frown and hit trust, trust dies, and skepticism grows.

More painfully, as the merger of ACN and CPC which was unfruitful in 2010 resumed, Nigerians were anxious seeing the new born breed, a merger project that could resurrect the dead trust is expected. But on the contrary, the tomb where the trust was buried was further cemented immediately the ilk of Ikimi who was late Abacha’s ally was presented to lead the merger talk. About 10 PDP Governors are said to be taking a political adventure to smell the fragrance of APC, and most likely exploit the opportunity there in, vie and struggle to grab power. As the skepticism grows, resistance to change evolves.

Let it be PDP! No difference between PDP and APC!! It is same old wine in new bottle, hence the taste is same!!! The call to resist change becomes louder. The risk of repeating a known failing party; PDP unconsciously crystallizes. Nigeria’s experience, and the Nigerians’ dispositional response to 2015’s political cloud have added to the weight of the validated relationship of cynicism; a natural trait of pessimism, skepticism; an outcome of trust betrayal and resistance to change.

There is no denial of the fact that at this circumstantial juncture of our political transition, the Nigerians whose interest is not the party, nor the regional affiliation of the person that emerges at the President come 2015 is at crossroad. We are at sea of which party route to move. Is it to stand akimbo and see PDP hugging the power at the centre, and continue to impoverish the masses? Is it by a stay-at-home exercise, in protest of lack of a political party of best people in our own subjective assessment? Can any of the stand alone parties like Labour Party and Accord Party gives the next President? It does not take being a rocket scientist to discern that the correct answer to the above posed questions is NO. We must do the voting in the APC pattern. We must re-create the trust no matter how abstract it could be and give APC a trial.

The essence of this need to campaign tirelessly and do all needful within legality for the enthronement of APC is much of trajectory projection. It is to shelve the havoc that is associated with one party system that Nigeria is unconsciously turning to. It is to create a healthy political contest that is of proportionate numerical strength. It is to experience a better governance if not sincerely done, but on the premise that the masses have the say in whom become the leader.

The change we are dreaming of is not a spontaneous reaction like the combination of acid and base to produce salt and water only. Certainly the change is evolving, and the evolution will be in continuum as it delivers better leaders with time, and as we also actively involve in the socio-political re-engineering. It is about time, it is about hope. Nigeria civil polity is still in its teething stage, it takes a concerted effort to ensure it is moulded to become peoples-centred. 

Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and his defiance of 'I had no shoe' theory

Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and his defiance of 'I had no shoe' theory

By Semiu A. Akanmu



Every political, apolitical and partisan citizen owns his intellectual arsenal and does the anthropological analysis of the surrounding circumstance that results in the emergence of the political leadership at every point in time. It is quite interesting that no matter how disparate these citizens' conclusions are, it is significantly correlated to the class of citizen the individual 'analyst' is, and a refelection political sentimentalism.

Some analysis are conspiratorial; courtesy of the conspiracy theorists, while some are highly academic, and others are simplistic. The simply purported ones are the majority and the reflection of the reason that informs the political decision of an average Nigerian on the street. To this class of the people, political orientation comes from friends, close relative and public relation stunts. It is more wild and greatly influential in our part of the world, where collectivists' culture rules.

To the observing Nigerians, the non-partisan, the innocent souls who painstakingly labour to exercise his civic right by obtaining Voters' Identity card, queuing in scorching sun with an undaunted hope and voting to ensure his heart desire becomes the leadership structure in person, and subsequently in policies is the farthest journey they can go. Sincerely, every President that had been emerging since 1999 has his emerging circumstance. It is this circumstance that destiny played through, and their leadership tenure is experienced.

To the majority, Olusegun Obasanjo came as a consolation to the Yorubas after the mysterious killing/death of MKO Abiola, his second tenure was 'majorly' believed to be a product of high-handed and professional rigging. After the punctuated Aremu's third term agenda, Late Umar Yaradua was given the mandate to lead. Then, Dr. Ebele Jonathan after a series of luck-interventioned promotions got himself the Vice Presidential seat, Acting President and finally the President when the last characteristics of living thing; Death (as taught in those days of Biology) was experienced by Mr. Yaradua.

The expiry of the tenure that brought the duo (late Umar and Ebele) in 2011 necessitated a re-election having Dr. Jonathan as the Presidential flag bearer. Thus, elections and campaign by its circumstance and nature by default start sweeping emotion more, with little or no manifesto. Evasion of presidential debate is an evidence to buttress this policy vacuum of the Ebele's campaign agenda. However, the emotion that took over the majority of Nigerians innocently did not come magically. The play and toss of decision making that misdirected their thumbs to thumbprint for the 'umbrella' did not just evolve. It was magnificently induced within the theoretical framework of 'I had no shoe'.

The theory of 'I had no shoe' is a theory that entrenches poverty-stricken background as a variable, it contains human face policies, it poses expectation of masses-based economy and its preaches fairness and equity to all. It is mounted on the framework of being raised from shillings and with dream and 'luck' to start earning pounds. It is expected that any concept to stem out of this theoretical framework will be in consonance and alignment with the variables that the theory of 'I had no shoe' enshrined.

Unfortunately, Dr. Azikwe Ebele Jonathan is his consistent exhibition of 'luck' has created another research gap by defying all these variables despite all present to discharge expectantly what will be in conformity with his success' circumstance, the poll victory victim of 'I had no shoe'. The subsidy removal was the first defiance indicator, series of shown of profligacy, 100% tolerance for corruption, 'I don't give a damn' antics, prodigal expenditure on the nation's cemetery in the name of centenary, banquet hall project, VP sambo house construction/ re-construction (pls, add to the list), and the recent First lady's pet project to gulp a 'token' of N40b.

Mr President has defied the 'I had no shoe' theory! We are earnestly waiting for the circumstance that will pervade the 2015 election scene. May be 'I am having more shoes'!!        

PDP, APC, AP, LP and the rest of us

PDP, APC, AP, LP and the rest of us

"When change is not completed, we shall continue to analyze and criticize, when change is completed we shall continue to consolidate. We shall never rest" - John Stalin.

Since the AbdulSalam Abubarkr's handing over to civil rule in 1999, Nigeria political landscape have been under the surveillance and ownership of the neoliberalists and capitalists. Though with changing faces and nomenclatures, the characters that play our political game have been those whose interest is siphoning public treasure, amassing wealth that ought to be for the citizenry for the benefits of their family and kinsmen.

In practicality, the People's Democratic Party (PDP) had been the umbrella that houses these illustrated set of lootocrats; the party had been controlling the country at the centre and majority of the states since 1999. And going by the unfortunate circumstance of the unitary system, much power are centralized at the PRESIDENCY. Hence to hastily conclude that the Presidency determines the 95% of the country's fortune and misfortune is never an exaggeration.

The above is not to insinuate that other parties of the then like AD to ACN, ANPP, APGA are handled by pro-masses. Our experience under Bisi Akande in Osun State, and Lam Adesina of Oyo State in succinct term of mass retrenchment of workers was a simple indicator of their insensitivity to the plight of the common man. But due to the same reason of this centralised power orientation, much is expected from the PDP; the only party that has national colouration, the largest party in West Africa.

The struggle to install another party at the centre became more loud in 2011 after a repetitive show of shame by PDP for good 12 years. However, as the political permutations and combination went, 'vote for Jonathan, and not PDP' was a broad day robbery tactics that was used on many innocent but ignorant Nigerians, as well as some religious bigots and ethnic chauvinists perforated the masses' chance of another alternative trial through religious and ethnic line.

The experience in the last two years by Nigerians vis-a-vis the killing policies of GEJ has naturally multiplied their quest for a change of power at the centre. The economic indicator understandable by an average Nigerian in the street is no where to be found. This is normal, expected and appreciated. It does not take a genius to discern how anti-people this Jona-led administration is. WE NEED A CHANGE IN POWER.... The call becomes louder and clearer!!

The existing opposition parties deemed the power shift necessary abeit for their own political arrogance, and thus followed the path of history as experienced in Senegal and France. All Progressive Congress was formed and formally launched, then the need to answer some germane questions becomes important. The political sensitivity to analyse PDP, APC and also the stand alone Labour Party and Accord Party (the PDP offshots) is of utmost relevance.
The rest of us in this piece symbolizes the non-partisan but politically conscious Nigerians, those whose interest is the journey of experiencing their dream Nigeria.
Thus, wish to go by the rational conclusion of the analysed data at their disposal. Some of us who do not believe in this democratic setting at all are also acknowledged, but since we could not fold arms without making our feelings known. At least by the power of our keyboard; the present pen, our voice must be heard.

The central question to an average Nigeria with the description of those whose sole interest is BETTER NIGERIA is that: Will APC gives a better governance and delivers democratic dividends as expected? Who answers this question matters in determining the content of the answer. However, to avoid undue stress on the reader, and due to the fact that it is not a YES or NO answer, I shall briefly asserts my stand on this topical issue.

Does party name dictates the inherent characteristics of the members of the party? Does formation of parties in Nigeria ideologically based? There is no gainsaying that answers to the two lately posed questions is NO. The characters of Ikimi & co in the newly formed APC and the incessant cross-carpeting of the party politicians respectively prove the NO of the answers given. Therefore, it will be irrational and too expensive a psychological risk to take if 'we' hope and believe that our saviour has come, if we start throwing thanksgiving parties that the deed has done, if we begin planning a send -off parties of PDP.

In this what-to-do situation, it takes a well analysed mindset to appropriately discern what to do, exercise trade-offs as deemed fit and decide correctly on steps of actions to do. The masses will be left with no other option than to test run APC also. The wise decision is to change the voting equation and see if fairness in polls and other political strategies will be favourable to APC, and could bring to the fore a change in the custodian of the power at the centre.
The decision is simply to experience a healthy competitive political play. A scenario to explain this and to avoid misrepresentation of position is the obtainable in the business world. Both Globacom and MTN are growing from the proceed derived from their customers, however, the emergence of Globacom mitigated the exploitation of MTN. But, Glo also need to break even, and not in to dish out its services free of charge. This is a simple analogy.

In conclusion, this is to submit that the APC if voted into power will do better than PDP. This is not to say the actors in APC are pro-masses, but as a strategy to maintain being in the good book of the masses (if the masses detremines who rule them).
To those expecting a party of saints and angels in a system of power that is designed by men need to go and see if that is possible in the mars. Certainly, not on earth.
To the leftists and conservative socialists, Nigeria's journey has just started. You just keep the socialist's conscientization moving, nothing says you cannot have it 2019. But certainly not 2015!