2015: Relating Trust, Cynicism, Skepticism and Resistance to change in understanding Nigerians’ disposition

2015: Relating Trust, Cynicism, Skepticism and Resistance to change in understanding Nigerians’ disposition

By Semiu A. Akanmu

2015, the journey is far and near! The dispositional attachment to this fateful year varies to the individual in question. However, to all Nigerians irrespective of their political consciousness and partisanship, the year 2015 is another significant year; a year of fifth term in the arithmetic sequence of a progression that had its first term as 1999. 2015 will be another year to experiment some delicacies of concocted political dishes, a year to test the viability of some mathematical models of political permutation and combination, and possibly a year to further validate the historical and professional electoral highhandedness that pervades Nigeria’s electoral system. To an unpartisan Nigerian, 2015 is another year of hope, praying that his thumb-printing will change the fortune of his dear country that had been in the hands of executive rogues and treasury looters.

Since the present socio-economic state of a supposed giant of Africa is in abysmal, the nationals of this country are left with no other option than to advocate for change. And just as I underscored in previous writings, this change is better seen at the centre since it is the mitochondria that survives the other components of the Nigeria ‘cell’. A factor credited to the unitary nature of our ironic Federalism.

However, could it be surprising that the change advocates are simultaneously resisting the same change they are advocating for? The Nigeria social commentators on a large scale are complaining bitterly of the retrogressive antics of the ruling party, since her emergence in Aso rock in 1999, and on that premise conclude that the party called PDP has nothing to deliver for the betterment of the Nigerian masses. But these same set of people have started badmouthing APC; the newly formed party to wrestle power and give PDP a chase out of Aso Rock in 2015. This initiative have been given all sorts of unprintable nomenclature, it is said to be a hopeless investment. To an observing social and behavioural scientist, this development is not surprising.

It is against the backdrop of behavioural response of Nigerians to 2015 political calculation that the conceptualization of a construct called ‘Resistance to Change’ is contextualized. Just as other constructs in the parlance of causality, there is always a cause to experience an effect. Indeed, there is a cause and effect linkage to the seeming resistance to change by these set of Nigerians. We need to look inwardly to discern the causes of this possibly counterproductive effect; Resistance to Change.

Stemming from the field of organisational management, resistance to change, skepticism, cynicism and trust are established related constructs. Though there are disparities in the outcomes of researches in modelling the four, the common submission however is that resistance to change is a result of skepticism and cynicism, and trust controls the rate of experiencing resistance to change, the moderating variable as to be rightly put.

Apart from those who are cynical being a natural symptom of pessimism, skepticism is mostly posited by managerial theorists as a consequence of betrayal. From the understanding of the theory of implied contract, it can be deduced that our political class are in contractual agreement with the citizenry via promises made during the electioneering campaign. The agreement is impliedly sealed through the masses’ choice by the process of voting, and in return, the citizens expect fulfilment of the electoral promises.

However, the contrary is born, the masses are betrayed, and the concept of mutual reciprocity is punctured as the leaders continue to water their hoggish propensity. The economic indices are unfavourable to the working class, the value of Naira goes bearish, and unemployment rate goes bullish. This experience over time since the advent of the fourth republic in 1999 had undoubtedly and arguably caused skepticism. Betrayal of trust could then be precisely conceptualised as cause, a catalytic contributing factor to skepticism. This is the hard lessons on the part of masses.

The power of trust cannot be underestimated as the experience goes tougher and farther. The Jonathan’s defiance of ‘I had no shoe’ theory came and finally murdered and buried the remnant of the trust: a left over of the Obasanjo’s regime, and the recuperating one of the Late Yaradua’s. Nigerians invested trust, the trust was malnurtured, it became malnourished, Nigerians frown and hit trust, trust dies, and skepticism grows.

More painfully, as the merger of ACN and CPC which was unfruitful in 2010 resumed, Nigerians were anxious seeing the new born breed, a merger project that could resurrect the dead trust is expected. But on the contrary, the tomb where the trust was buried was further cemented immediately the ilk of Ikimi who was late Abacha’s ally was presented to lead the merger talk. About 10 PDP Governors are said to be taking a political adventure to smell the fragrance of APC, and most likely exploit the opportunity there in, vie and struggle to grab power. As the skepticism grows, resistance to change evolves.

Let it be PDP! No difference between PDP and APC!! It is same old wine in new bottle, hence the taste is same!!! The call to resist change becomes louder. The risk of repeating a known failing party; PDP unconsciously crystallizes. Nigeria’s experience, and the Nigerians’ dispositional response to 2015’s political cloud have added to the weight of the validated relationship of cynicism; a natural trait of pessimism, skepticism; an outcome of trust betrayal and resistance to change.

There is no denial of the fact that at this circumstantial juncture of our political transition, the Nigerians whose interest is not the party, nor the regional affiliation of the person that emerges at the President come 2015 is at crossroad. We are at sea of which party route to move. Is it to stand akimbo and see PDP hugging the power at the centre, and continue to impoverish the masses? Is it by a stay-at-home exercise, in protest of lack of a political party of best people in our own subjective assessment? Can any of the stand alone parties like Labour Party and Accord Party gives the next President? It does not take being a rocket scientist to discern that the correct answer to the above posed questions is NO. We must do the voting in the APC pattern. We must re-create the trust no matter how abstract it could be and give APC a trial.

The essence of this need to campaign tirelessly and do all needful within legality for the enthronement of APC is much of trajectory projection. It is to shelve the havoc that is associated with one party system that Nigeria is unconsciously turning to. It is to create a healthy political contest that is of proportionate numerical strength. It is to experience a better governance if not sincerely done, but on the premise that the masses have the say in whom become the leader.

The change we are dreaming of is not a spontaneous reaction like the combination of acid and base to produce salt and water only. Certainly the change is evolving, and the evolution will be in continuum as it delivers better leaders with time, and as we also actively involve in the socio-political re-engineering. It is about time, it is about hope. Nigeria civil polity is still in its teething stage, it takes a concerted effort to ensure it is moulded to become peoples-centred.